AI Now Matches Prediction Markets in Forecasting Real Events, Study Finds

Artificial intelligence models are demonstrating forecasting capabilities on par with prediction markets, according to new research from the University of Chicago's SIGMA Lab. The Prophet Arena benchmark, launched in August, pits AI systems against live events—from elections to economic indicators—sourced from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

GPT-5 currently leads the rankings, with models exhibiting distinct prediction "personalities" that frequently diverge from market consensus. These deviations have occasionally generated substantial returns, suggesting AI may offer unique analytical advantages.

The benchmark's real-time evaluation eliminates traditional advantages like pre-training on historical data. "There is no secret fine-tuning trick, no leakage of test samples," researchers noted, emphasizing the platform's impartial assessment framework.

Early findings indicate AI could soon transform institutional decision-making processes. The technology's ability to process complex, real-world variables at scale positions it as a potential game-changer in predictive analytics.